Bits, Bobs & Big Ideas: 3 International Cooperation Highlights Every 2 Weeks #6
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The States of Fragility 2025
The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) has just released its "States of Fragility 2025" report, offering a comprehensive analysis of the multifaceted challenges confronting fragile contexts worldwide. This publication arrives at a critical juncture, as global Official Development Assistance (ODA) faces significant reductions from key donor nations, intensifying the vulnerabilities of already fragile states.
The report identifies 61 countries and regions experiencing high or extreme levels of fragility (while it’s looking at the large majority of countries worldwide). As in the past reports, the emphasis is on the fact that fragility is a multidimensional issue, encompassing economic, environmental, human, political, security, and societal factors. The release of this report is particularly pertinent given the current global landscape of diminishing ODA. The reduction in aid has profound implications for fragile contexts, which rely heavily on consistent external support to maintain basic services and security. The OECD report warns that without sustained assistance, these regions may experience exacerbated instability, leading to increased conflict, displacement, and humanitarian crises.
The report is in many ways interesting, not the least because it makes a very explicit link between fragility and geopolitics and how development cooperation can be instrumental in this. Given today’s discussions on the role of development cooperation, it’s great to see how the discussion is being pushed forward by the OECD. The four policy recommendations are a good start for future discussion and most importantly action…
Development co-operation must reassert its value as an instrument of international statecraft
Conflict prevention is a geopolitical and human security necessity
Inclusivity is not enough, so thinking on partnerships must evolve again
Understanding fragility is at the core of effective strategy for a changing world
The States of Fragility is also examplary in that each edition, it builds on past feedback and becomes a better, more inclusive, yet independent and evidence based product that does not necessarily represents the visions of all its member states.
Debating the importance of geopolitics in development cooperation has always been the case, but maybe even a bit more openly these days. In his recent op-ed on the fourth Financing for Development (FfD) Conference, Stephan Klingebiel highlights several critical “elephants in the room” of which geopolitics is just one of the them. All elphants have been roaming around for a while, but they seem to dominate more space these days…
Declining Official Development Assistance (ODA): Despite longstanding commitments, ODA levels are on a downward trajectory. Not a little bit, but in some cases effectively halving their contributions.
ODA as a Geopolitical Instrument: The strategic deployment of ODA reflects intensifying global power dynamics. Nations are increasingly leveraging aid to counterbalance influences from emerging powers, intertwining development assistance with geopolitical objectives.
Governance Debates—From OECD to UN: There's a growing discourse on transitioning ODA governance from the OECD's Development Assistance Committee to the United Nations. Advocates argue this shift could enhance inclusivity and legitimacy, though concerns about potential bureaucratic inefficiencies persist.
Unconditional transfers: Democracy is declining, but simultaneously, debates on development and climate financing increasingly demand unconditional cash transfers. These unconditional transfers to potentially unaccountable or development-averse elites is likely to make maintaining development and climate financing more challenging in the years ahead.
Impact of U.S. Policy Shifts: The return of Donald Trump to the U.S. presidency introduces uncertainty, notably with immediate freezes on U.S. development cooperation. Such policy changes could significantly influence global development paradigms and the outcomes of the FfD conference.
The “elephants in the room” have indeed always been present. Maybe we need to be a bit more like elephants ourselves. It’s said that elephants never forget. Humans - on the other hand seem to have shorter memories and tend to forget that past failures to invest in sustainable development have led to deeper crises. While I share the pessimism in the op-ed, I hope Seville 2025 can be turned into a moment of learning, not repeating history, ensuring that commitments are not just made, but kept.
Book Review: I Will Never See the World Again by Ahmet Altan
I finished this week Ahmet Altan’s I Will Never See the World Again. An extraordinary testament to the power of the human spirit, resilience, and the unbreakable force of literature. Written from within the confines of a Turkish prison, where Altan was unjustly incarcerated following the 2016 failed coup attempt, this book is a meditation on freedom, identity, and the ability of words to transcend walls.
Altan, a renowned Turkish novelist and journalist, crafts his memoir with poetic precision, turning his prison cell into a space of intellectual and emotional resistance. Stripped of his physical freedom, he finds solace and defiance in writing, proving that even under the most oppressive circumstances, the mind remains unconquerable. The book is structured as a series of essays - smuggled in pieces out of the prison - each brimming with wisdom, sharp observations, and profound philosophical musings. Altan’s experiences are not just his own; they reflect a broader global crisis where authoritarianism, censorship, and the erosion of democratic freedoms are on the rise. His words echo the struggles of journalists and dissidents in similar countries where speaking truth to power comes at a steep price. Altan’s memoir is not just a book. It is an act of defiance, a lesson in resilience, and a celebration of the boundless power of the human mind. Even in the darkest moments, as long as there are words, there is light.
If you haven’t read this book, get yourself a copy. It’s worth spending a few evenings with him…
Quote I am thinking about…
One of the saddest lessons of history is this: If we've been bamboozled long enough, we tend to reject any evidence of the bamboozle. We're no longer interested in finding out the truth. The bamboozle has captured us. It's simply too painful to acknowledge, even to ourselves, that we've been taken. Once you give a charlatan power over you, you almost never get it back.
Carl Sagan (in The Demon-Haunted World: Science as a Candle in the Dark)If you have enjoyed this post, share it with your friends and colleagues… If you have any suggestions for the future, write to frederik@tomorrowispossible.com